Climate Intelligence, Defence and Analytics

The vast majority of people are only aware of a part of the climate story. The core reason behind this is the way in which climate knowledge is agreed and disseminated – through the IPCC – where such knowledge has become a commodity and is traded by scientists, civil servants, diplomats and politicians from across the world. So if say China vehemently opposes the UK’s latest projections for sea-level rise, or Saudi Arabia rejects the USA’s calculations for the warming caused by aerosols, you can be sure that either nothing or a compromise figure will be what emerges, as the agreed knowledge – often differing from actual projections produced by the best scientists on the relevant topics.

Some of us here at Scientinel have been a part of this incredibly inadequate and frustrating process. But we walked away, because we realise that the process if deeply flawed, for a number of different reasons. After decades, it is clear to us that the IPCC is not fit for purpose and has failed to adequately inform and educate the world on the ongoing climate crisis. The net result of decades of political and diplomatic procrastination, is a world where the climate has already substantially changed – and will continue to change to deliver extreme impacts, at a complex multitude of levels.

We use a three-vector approach: harness the best climate intelligence, enact the strongest defence, and generate relevant analytics to help create new intelligence. 

 You do not have to work with negotiated knowledge or compromised science. We certainly do not. Nor must you waste resources analysing results of climate models widely accepted as irrelevant by the climate science community, but included in the accepted knowledge for the purpose of being diplomatically correct. The world has been developing failing climate policies based on political ineptitude, incompetence and compromise, for decades. 

We are able to bring you a more complete picture of relevant climate science, made by the best scientists, after years of experience, working with them, at many different levels. The world is full of award-winning amazing scientists, that have in the last decades advanced our understanding of planetary and climate sciences enormously. Access to this will enable you to significantly reduce uncertainty, and where possible, help you spearhead your business towards effective solutions.

Equally we have in our team at Scientinel experienced international policy makers, versed in understanding and differentiating policies that make an actual difference, from the ever growing climaverse of tokenisms and wild goose chases, full of empty promises, unachievable targets and vague objectives.

 At Scientinel we have developed a set of proprietary tools that focus on natural disasters and extreme events. Scientinel currently hosts the world’s highest-resolution global sea-level rise map, including catastrophic worst-case scenarios (e.g. H++) – an example of how we can use the best available climate information and apply it to real world intelligence, to help provide you with relevant risk management solutions. 

Unless you are taking your business off planet, we do not believe in the ability to climate proof anything. One of the reasons why we cannot help you do this is that you will be under the illusion that your assets and businesses are protected to a certain threshold, and that the relevant climate projections are not expected to cross said threshold before a pre-determined set time. Unfortunately (as discussed above) we do not accept these thresholds, as in our view they do not represent the real risks posed by climate change, and are often a set of incredibly conservative and ever changing goal posts with the release of each new IPCC report.

We know which parts of the world will be submerged by sea-level rise, we know that coastal communities will be destroyed, many countries will lose land, borders will be redrawn, and people will migrate in even greater numbers – giving rise to increased risk of conflicts and wars. We also know some of these scenarios are unavoidable. In this uncertain world, how and where will you best adapt to survive these complex changes?

We have identified a range of well (and some even long) established best practices when it comes to increasing the resilience of both assets, communities and businesses. Some of these have evolved over time, and form today a portfolio of relevant hard and soft strategies and solutions that we can help you identify as relevant to you. These often work across space, time and organisations, leveraging opportunities for organisational enhancement, providing increased transparency through data and knowledge sharing.

Developing climate resilience involves a range of different actors having the capacity to anticipate real climate risks and hazards, prepare to absorb shocks and stresses, and reshape and transform development pathways in the longer term. While some informal protocols exist that will guide you towards globalist principles of adaptation and resilience (e.g. the World Bank’s), and while some of these have proven to be effective as a starting point when examining your resilience options, relying on compromised climate knowledge makes most of these strategies ineffective against high-end and extreme scenarios.

Scientinel will help you prepare to defend against threats that include extreme and worst case scenarios, because we believe we are already living in a world that will inevitably experience such scenarios. Unlike the current trend in the provision and dissemination of formal climate knowledge, we will not ask you to focus on the uncertainties or middle-of-the-road climate scenarios. We take a zero compromise and maximum resilience approach when it comes to defence. 

What are your competitors doing to ensure they remain resilient? What worked, what didn’t work and why? Which are your top strategic risks, and how can we help you identify your operational red flags? Climate change can pose a multitude of strategic risks to businesses. Here are some examples of areas where we have produced dedicated tools that can help you identify, address and manage relevant risks:

1. Extreme Events: These can cause significant damage to property and resources, disrupt power and water supplies, and prevent customers and suppliers from reaching the business.
2. Transition Risks: As the world fails to move towards a low-carbon economy, businesses will continue to face increased transportation costs and, where possible, will need to redesign products to adapt to changing and increasingly extreme conditions.
3. Supply Chain Risks: Climate change will continue to disrupt supply chains, especially those located in areas prone to extreme events, such as coastal regions in tropical cyclone pathways, and those that will disappear as a result of sea-level rise.
4. Health Risks: We currently do not know what increased levels of atmospheric CO2 will do to humans, or for that matter to many animals that are not only an important part of the world’s biodiversity, but are also crucial in maintaining our food chain. As nearly 70% of all insects have already disappeared, we can help you understand when such levels are likely to start impacting you, your communities, and your business, and where possible, how to adapt.
5. Reputational and Legal Action Risks: Businesses that do not take action to mitigate their impact on climate change will face reputational damage, associated to negative public opinion and increased risk of legal action. While some of this is manageable, some of it is not, and with increased numbers of pressure groups taking to the streets to cover businesses and assets with bright coloured paint, and communities taking to the courts to seek accountability for the climate crisis, you will need to demonstrate aggressive and effective adaptation and mitigation strategies.
6. Regulatory Risks: As governments implement policies to combat climate change, businesses will need to comply with new regulations, which could increase costs. We can help you identify which new regulations are likely to impact your business the most.
7. Physical Risks: Climate change can lead to physical risks such as water stress, drought, wildfires, storms, flooding and submergence, which can significantly affect a business’s operations. 
8. Migration Caused by Climate Change: This can lead to a change in the demographics of a business’s workforce and customer base, potentially affecting demand for its products or services.
9. Natural Disasters: These can disrupt a business’s operations and cause significant damage.

The above are used merely as examples. Some may be more or less relevant to your business. We do however apply and filter a list of over 190 different climate risks we have identified over the years, some of these risks, identified and used exclusively by the Scientinel team. It’s important for businesses to understand these risks and develop effective strategies to mitigate them.